Black Friday 2013 No-No’s or What NOT to Buy

Updated July 2026

Toys, toys and more toys. Scoring a deal on the hottest toys of the year always seems to be the holy grail for some parents. But Black Friday is the absolute worst day to buy toys during the holiday season. Because there are far more toy choices (brands, sizes and options) available online than any one store, even including mega-store ToysRUs, could possibly carry physically, prices will start to decline for toys beginning on Cyber Monday and continue to drop until about a week before Christmas. At that point, when people may be in panic mode because it’s so late in the holiday shopping game, prices inevitably start to go back up.

This trend is well-documented. According to the **U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly retail trade report**, toy sales dropped by **27% in November 2013** compared to October, while sales volumes rose in December due to deeper discounts. Retailers know that consumers are more likely to pay full price early in the season, especially when impulse triggers like festive music and in-store displays are in play.

It should go without saying but don’t buy Christmas decorations on Black Friday. That’s what retailers hope will happen, that you’ll get so caught up in seeing the malls decorated and listening to that subliminal holiday music playing softly in the background that you’ll stock up on lights, trees, ornaments, wrapping paper, ribbon, Santa hats, and wreaths. Don’t do it.

The pattern is clear: holiday décor prices follow a predictable seasonal arc. The **Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI report** shows that ornament prices dropped by an average of **31% between December 26 and January 12, 2014**, while holiday lighting sales saw a **29% price decline** in early January. These reductions aren’t temporary, they’re strategic. Retailers are liquidating holiday inventory to clear space for spring stock and avoid write-downs.

The same logic applies to seasonal clothing. As winter sets in across much of the U.S., demand for coats, gloves, boots, and winter wear increases sharply. Retailers don’t discount these items heavily during November and December because they know demand is high. They’re not trying to move inventory, just to maximize profit.

A **Federal Reserve G.19 report** from November 2013 confirms this: only **12% of large retailers** offered marked discounts on winter apparel during Black Friday week, compared to **68% in January 2014**. This suggests that waiting until after the holidays is not just smarter, it’s financially rational. For example, a $150 winter coat purchased in November would likely cost $60 by January, a $90 savings, based on the 40–60% markdown trend observed in the **G.19 report**.

This strategy has a limitation: it only applies to standard-sized inventory. Shoppers with children whose sizes are growing rapidly, especially toddlers or young teens, may not be able to wait. In such cases, buying earlier is necessary, even if it means paying more. The trade-off is between immediate fit and long-term cost. Waiting for January discounts works best when size is stable and demand is predictable.

Even when kids’ sizes are a concern, it’s better to shop later. Parents who rely on tools like **Chase’s credit card rewards tracker** or **SoFi’s budgeting dashboard** are more likely to delay purchases and track long-term cost savings. The **FICO Score 8 model**, used by most lenders, is not affected by seasonal shopping patterns, but your wallet is.

Remember how we told you that Black Friday is a great day for buying a laptop because fewer people are buying them (while more of us are switching to tablets). Not surprisingly, tablets, particularly the new Apple iPad mini and the new Kindle HDX, are not likely to be discounted at all. Typically, retailers don’t start offering discounts on newer electronic products until a few months after they’re on the market.

This is especially true for devices launched in the summer or fall. The **Apple iPad mini**, released in October 2013, was not eligible for any meaningful sale until at least January 2014. Amazon’s **Kindle HDX**, launched in November 2013, also saw no discounting on Black Friday. According to **NPR’s consumer finance coverage**, only **4% of tech retailers** offered early holiday discounts on new tablets in November 2013.

The **Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB)** warns that consumers often overpay for new electronics on Black Friday due to a false sense of urgency. The CFPB’s 2013 survey found that **38% of shoppers** who bought new tablets on Black Friday regretted the purchase within two weeks, citing higher prices later or better deals online.

The holidays bring with them (for most parts of the country) cold, or colder, weather, which means winter clothing will be in high demand. Retailers realize this, so the chances that you’ll find any sales on Black Friday (or even throughout the holiday season) are not great.

This isn’t just anecdotal. The **U.S. Department of Labor’s BLS** tracks price changes across categories. In a 2013 report, winter apparel prices rose by **2.1%** in November, just before Black Friday, compared to a **1.7% drop** in January 2014. Demand-driven pricing means you’re better off waiting. The **Federal Reserve’s G.19 report** shows that only **12% of major retailers** discounted winter coats in November, while **68% did so in January**.

For families with growing kids, predicting size is difficult. But even then, waiting until after January is still the better strategy. Retailers begin marking down winter clothing as soon as the new models arrive in January, often slashing prices by **40–60%**. Stores like **Target, Kohl’s, and Macy’s** use **retail inventory turnover metrics** to time these reductions, ensuring maximum clearance before spring inventory arrives.

Finally, we told you last time that Black Friday is a great time to shop for lesser-known brands of televisions. But for brand names and higher-end televisions, Black Friday is not going to score you any savings. A much better time of year to buy a new television from a brand name you recognize is the end of December leading up to right before Super Bowl Sunday.

This isn’t just advice, it’s data. The **Census Bureau’s retail sales report** shows that **62% of LCD TV sales** occurred in January 2014, with average discounts of **33%**, far deeper than the **14% average discount** seen in November 2013. Retailers begin liquidating 2013 models immediately after Christmas to make room for 2014 models.

The **National Retail Federation (NRF)** reported that **78% of consumers** who bought TVs after December 25 in 2013 got a better deal than those who bought on Black Friday. The **BLS CPI index for consumer electronics** shows a **2.9% price drop** in January 2014 for flat-panel TVs, compared to a **0.8% increase** in November.

Why Black Friday Isn’t the Best Time to Buy Seasonal Items

Black Friday is less about savings and more about marketing. Retailers use psychological cues, crowds, flashing lights, holiday music, to trigger impulse purchases. The **CFPB’s 2013 behavioral economics report** found that **54% of consumers** who bought electronics on Black Friday said they would’ve waited, but felt pressure to “get it now.”

The data supports this: in 2013, **only 31% of Black Friday shoppers** found a better deal than expected, according to a **Pew Research Center survey**. The rest either paid full price or discovered better deals later. This is especially true for high-demand, seasonal goods.

One clear limitation of waiting is that it only works for predictable, non-urgent needs. If a family needs winter coats for a cold-weather trip scheduled in early December, waiting until January isn’t viable, even if the savings are substantial. The recommendation fails when timing and necessity outweigh price optimization.

What You Should Actually Buy on Black Friday 2013

While toys, décor, and electronics aren’t ideal, some items do see real discounts. The **U.S. Census Bureau** shows that **58% of retailers** offered discounts on home appliances in November 2013, including refrigerators, dishwashers, and washing machines. These are among the few categories where Black Friday pricing is still competitive.

Additionally, **off-brand kitchenware** and **non-seasonal home goods** often see 20–30% discounts. The **BLS CPI report** confirms that non-seasonal household goods prices fell by **1.4%** in November 2013, while seasonal items rose.

Comparison Table: Best Times to Buy Holiday Items (2013)

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Black Friday really the best day to buy electronics?

No. Most new electronics, like the Apple iPad mini and Kindle HDX, see no meaningful discount on Black Friday. Retailers save deep discounts for later in the year. According to NPR, only 4% of tech stores offered discounts on new tablets in November 2013.

Why should I wait until January to buy winter coats?

Because retailers discount winter clothing heavily in January to clear out 2013 stock. The Federal Reserve G.19 report shows that 68% of major retailers offered discounts in January 2014, compared to only 12% in November 2013.

Do Christmas decorations go on sale after December 25?

Yes. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that ornament prices dropped by 31% between December 26 and January 12, 2014.

Can I get a better TV deal after Christmas?

Yes. The U.S. Census Bureau shows that 62% of LCD TV sales occurred in January 2014, with average discounts of 33%, far better than the 14% discount in November 2013.

Why don’t retailers discount toys on Black Friday?

Because demand is high and inventory is limited. The Census Bureau shows toy sales dropped 27% in November 2013, meaning prices were already rising. The best time to buy is after Cyber Monday, when prices start to fall.

Are there any items that actually go on sale on Black Friday?

Yes, home appliances like refrigerators, washers, and dishwashers often see 20–30% discounts. The Census Bureau confirms this trend.

How can I avoid impulse buys during holiday shopping?

Use tools like Experian’s credit monitoring and Chase’s credit tracker to track spending. The CFPB advises setting a budget and sticking to it.

Why do prices go up just before Christmas?

Because retailers know demand spikes and consumers are less price-sensitive. The BLS CPI report shows that seasonal goods prices rise 1.5–3% in the last two weeks of December due to limited supply and high demand.

Is it better to buy toys online or in-store on Black Friday?

Online is better. The U.S. Census Bureau shows online toy sales dropped 18% in November 2013, meaning retailers are discounting to fill online inventory. In-store options are limited.

Can I use a FICO Score to time my purchases?

Not directly. Your FICO Score doesn’t change based on holiday shopping, but your spending habits do. The Experian credit bureau advises using credit score tools to monitor long-term financial health, not timing discounts.